Photo: Andrea Conti © Eurizon
By Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Analysis at Eurizon
This week, markets will be focused on U.S. inflation and retail sales data, as well as the start of the corporate earnings season. In the eurozone, the spotlight will be on industrial production.
The United States will publish September inflation figures on Wednesday and retail sales data on Thursday. Inflation is likely to remain a decisive factor in the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions. Headline inflation is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6% year on year, while core inflation is forecast to edge up from 2.4% to 2.5%. On a monthly basis, prices are expected to rise 0.2%, down from 0.3% the previous month.
Retail sales are forecast to keep growing, though more slowly than in August: consensus expects a 0.3% month-on-month increase, after 1.2% previously. Weaker auto sales are likely to contribute to the slowdown.
For August, consensus forecasts point to flat industrial production in the eurozone. This lack of momentum contrasts with the still-positive picture painted by business confidence surveys.
Third-quarter earnings season gets under way this week and is expected to peak in the coming weeks. Alongside results from U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, investors will be watching ASML and TSMC closely for clues about the AI investment cycle.
For S&P 500 companies, analysts expect earnings growth of around 29% year on year. If confirmed, this would mark the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth.
Find all our Strategic Case articles
