Photo Alexis Bienvenu © LFDE

By Alexis Bienvenu, Portfolio Manager, La Financière de l’Échiquier (LFDE)

The space ecosystem is now overwhelmingly dominated by the United States, not least thanks to SpaceX. But China may soon redraw the map.

For while it is true that the United States operates nearly 77% of the world’s active satellites, notably thanks to the Starlink constellation, compared with only 9% for China,[1] Beijing has nonetheless set in motion a well-honed space strategy: accept an initial lag, invest heavily by leveraging existing technological advances, then industrialize at lower cost.

Thus, in December 2025, China asked the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to reserve orbital resources for nearly 203,000 potential satellites.[2] To turn that ambition into reality, it is advancing rapidly in the key field of reusable launchers. In 2026, the country crossed a symbolic threshold: CASC and then LandSpace successfully completed the first recoveries of Chinese reusable launchers, replicating a technology that made SpaceX’s success possible. The gap with the U.S. leader remains wide, but China’s entry into the reusable rocket era significantly strengthens its space potential.

The main battleground, however, may lie elsewhere. The race to space is no longer merely a race for observation, communications or weaponry. It is gradually becoming a race for energy. And in that arena, China has major advantages.

Its goal is to generate electricity in space using vast solar panels in orbit, then use that power to run dedicated space-based computing centers for artificial intelligence, to supply future lunar infrastructure, or to transmit it back to Earth in the form of microwaves.

In this race, China’s advantage could be considerable. The country already dominates global production of terrestrial photovoltaic panels by a wide margin. It could leverage that lead to develop future space systems, especially those based on perovskite, a new generation of photovoltaic materials that are lighter and potentially more efficient than conventional silicon — a decisive asset when every kilogram launched into orbit counts.

Admittedly, the challenges remain numerous. No commercial space solar power plant exists today. Launch costs, orbital assembly, energy transmission, and equipment maintenance all represent substantial obstacles, both technologically and economically. The industrial horizon remains distant.

But major technological breakthroughs rarely follow a straight line. Fifteen years ago, few observers imagined that China would dominate solar panels, batteries or electric vehicles. Today, it aims to replicate that model in space.

Europe, often absent from oversimplified narratives, is not out of the game. With Ariane 6, Galileo, Copernicus and IRIS, it remains a significant space power. Its pace, however, is very different: no European launcher is reusable today, which is a major competitive handicap.

The future of space therefore looks set to be a new Sino-American technological race. But while the United States still holds a clear lead today in satellites and launchers, the chapter on space-based solar energy may well be written in Chinese.

A new sovereignty issue is unfolding above our heads.

Main changes: moved the footnote markers after the comma/period rather than before (standard English convention); reordered “The gap remains wide with the U.S. leader” → “The gap with the U.S. leader remains wide” for smoother syntax; dropped the redundant “either” in the three-item list (“run… supply… or transmit”); moved “admittedly” to the front of its sentence for better flow; turned the “asset” sentence fragment into a dash-linked clause for tighter rhythm; and added missing Oxford commas for consistency across the piece.

[1] Le Point & Look Up space geopolitics barometer, May 2026

[2] www.globaltimes.cn/page/202601/1353441.shtml

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