“The Globe” prepared by Eurizon Asset Management.

Over the past few weeks, the global macroeconomic backdrop has been marked by a sharp rise in uncertainty, driven by the unpredictability of developments in the conflict launched on 28 February by the United States and Israel against Iran.

To assess the early impact of this crisis on economies, it may be useful to look at certain so-called “high-frequency” data, published daily or weekly, which can provide more timely insight into how economies are evolving.

As for US economic activity, signs of a modest pickup have come from the Weekly Economic Index published by the Dallas Fed. For the week ending 11 April, the indicator’s estimate appears consistent with real GDP growth of 2.8% year on year, a slight acceleration from the previous 2.69%.

On the employment front, rising uncertainty is encouraging companies to make greater use of temporary labour. Since the start of the year, the ASA Staffing Index, a weekly indicator designed to capture hiring momentum for temporary and contract positions in the United States, has posted a steady increase. In the week ending 5 April, it stood 4.8% above its year-earlier level.

As for US consumer spending, “real-time” estimates from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (CARTS Nowcast) point to a 1.3% monthly increase in March in retail sales excluding cars, in nominal terms. However, once adjusted for the effect of higher prices, in real terms sales would have fallen by 0.7% month on month.

This estimate suggests that the erosion of consumers’ purchasing power caused by recent rises in consumer prices, particularly in the energy sector, may have curbed real consumption.

In addition, on the price front, nowcasting models for US consumer inflation developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland point to another acceleration in April, following the sharp increase in March. For April, the Cleveland Fed expects headline inflation to rise to 3.58% year on year, versus 3.3% in March (with a monthly increase of 0.46%), alongside a substantial stabilisation in core inflation at 2.6% year on year (with a monthly increase of 0.21%).

Turning to the German economy, the Weekly Activity Index (WAI) developed by the Deutsche Bundesbank, based on a combination of monthly data and higher-frequency data (weekly and daily), stood at -0.12 in the sixteenth week of 2026 (week ending 24 April), slightly below the 0.01 recorded the previous week. The average estimate for the weeks available since the beginning of the year is 0.02, in line with a subdued German economic performance in the first part of the year.

With regard to industrial activity, the index tracking truck mileage on German toll motorways (published by the German Federal Statistical Office, Destatis), which tends to be correlated with industrial production, fell by 0.3% month on month in March, after a 0.7% rise in February. Although the indicator is fairly volatile, its overall performance in the first quarter suggests only a limited recovery in German industrial activity.

More pronounced signs of a rebound in German manufacturing output came, however, from the preliminary estimate of the aggregate sales indicator in the manufacturing sector developed by the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) as part of its experimental statistics. According to the advance estimates, aggregate sales in the manufacturing sector increased by 11.8% month on month in March, after a 5.6% monthly rise in February (seasonally unadjusted data). These estimates point to a stronger recovery in manufacturing activity.

Finally, as regards price developments in Germany, the trend in the “Google Inflation Index” — an indicator that measures daily the number of Google searches by German citizens related to the term “inflation” and which tends to be correlated with inflation dynamics — signals a sharp rise in concern over price pressures in March, only partly easing in April. If sustained, the recent acceleration in inflation, combined with fears of further increases, could act as a drag on consumer spending growth.

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